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4/2/2008
Wow. Gableman wins - and Menasha is de-Lauxed
The first justice in more than four decades to unseat a sitting judge. That’s huge. And the stakes were indeed huge, as the balance of the court was at stake, in more ways than one. Pundits and regular joe-schmoes alike will have much to say about the power of big money in the race for justice (Ooh, Jay Bullock – really sour grapes… - see today's FoxPolitics News for more). Listed below are just a few numbers that probably confirm important demographics changes in northeast Wisconsin. The percent voting for Gableman:
Statewide, 51.2% Dane, 28% Milwaukee, 42% Outagamie, 52% Brown, 53% Racine, 54% Winnebago, 56% Calumet, 59% Manitowoc, 60% Oconto, 60% Kewaunee, 61% Marinette, 61% Sheboygan, 62% Waupaca, 63% Shawano, 63% Waushara, 64% Fond du Lac, 65%
As expected, Dane and Milwaukee Counties voted overwhelmingly for Butler (really overwhelmingly in Dane Co.). But look at the northeast Wisconsin counties. Outagamie is just barely above the statewide total (by .9%, actually) for Judge Gableman, and is pulling up the rear of all the remaining counties cited. I even included more liberal, blue-collar Racine County just to illustrate where Outagamie and Brown fall in what will be seen as relative conservative strength (or not) - not doing too well in what certainly has been much more conservative territory in the past.
It’s a new day in Menasha Another election I see as an upset. Volunteers for Don Merkes, 2nd term Menasha alderman, worked hard, but were buoyed by nagging financial problems at the city’s steam plant and highest-in-the-area property taxes. Defeating 5-term mayor Joe Laux, Merkes will have his hands full when sworn in later this month.
Will Appleton Mayor see it as a message? Citywide, unopposed Appleton Mayor Tim Hanna received 7,507 votes. Registered write-in candidates received 802 votes, with I’m guessing 100 or so additional assorted write-ins. I don’t have the total number of Appleton residents voting, so can’t tell how many simply voted NO by not voting for anyone for mayor. In my polling place (District 15), 66% of those that voted, voted for Hanna.
When you have a challenger, 66% is a landslide. When you’re running unopposed, it better bring you pause.
COMMENTS
Jo:
Two years ago our Mayor got 57% running unopposed. Didn't even phase him.
The good news is he didn't run this year.
The bad news is a potential clone did.

Al (Wed Apr 02 05:56:41 2008)
Jo: Yes Hanna is still with us.
Hopefully, the water plant litigation on Appleton receiving some of it insurance coverage should be concluded in May. As it now stands, Appleton will be very lucky to get its insurance premium back. The cost of this litigation could be more costly than the insurance premium. This will just be added to the massive water plant cost overrun and/or to the next water rate increase.
Is it too early to start a recall action for Hanna or should he be sworn in again and then recalled?
I didn't take time to recheck the statutes, but I believe a recall action cannot be undertaken until an elected official has served one year of his term. JE

(Wed Apr 02 07:38:38 2008)
I thought the Ashland County total--you know, where Gableman was the big, bad, tough-on-crime DA--was interesting: 52-48 Butler.
Sour grapes are the best kind of grapes for bloggers. You know that. :)
Very interesting numbers Jay. Good point you're quietly making. JE

folkbum (Wed Apr 02 08:14:48 2008)
Once you run down the names we also see another interesting trend--a lot of incumbents were ousted last night, the biggest of which (as you pointed out) were Laux and Butler. (From a political science standpoint--Butler's loss should have been all but impossible!)
A number of seats, especially in Appleton were taken by challengers. In a conventional election, 95% of incumbents will retain their seats. However, at the local level, that number is prone to fluctuate wildly, as we see this year.
Congrats to all the winners! Do your constituents proud.

Adam Delikowski (Wed Apr 02 09:24:14 2008)
Even though it is a PITA for poll workers to handle large numbers of write-ins I still think it's an important part of the election process. We got through it (me as relatively new to working at the polls) and thankfully (or not) the turnout was low. The write-in sorting we had to do was not encumbered by the inevitable glitches that go with a massive turnout.
And yes there should be careful analysis of the 'none of the above' or other ballot preferences that show dissatisfaction with local government.
My take on it is that the status quo is still good enough for Appleton residents not to seek out big changes. There's no irresistible force bumping up against the immovable object of an unopposed mayor.
As to judgeships, after the populace has sucked up the negative campaign tactics of massive and well-financed media campaigns, they have no one to blame but themselves when the next bank bailout hits or the next civil action suit against predatory lending outfit is overturned.

Lon Ponschock (Wed Apr 02 09:39:30 2008)
" As to judgeships, after the populace has sucked up the negative campaign tactics of massive and well-financed media campaigns,"
No kidding - boy those union boys think they can just spend their memberships dues like it's monopoly money.
" they have no one to blame but themselves when the next bank bailout hits or the next civil action suit against predatory lending outfit is overturned. "
Oh, that reminds me, Lon ...
You never did define what you meant by 'free trade scams', who is being enslaved in the Far East, or how Bear Stearns was a Ponzi scheme.

Brian (Wed Apr 02 12:16:41 2008)
I think there are probably many who agree with me that the advertising for this race was meaningless and disgusting - on both sides. I know business paid for Gableman's ads and was horrified (and naive I guess) to discover that WEAC helped to pay for one of Butler's pay back ads.
But did you watch the Gableman/Butler debate? I'm afraid Gableman was inarticulate at best and moronic at worst. That's not sour grapes that's just common sense.
Also, I heard that big business chose Gableman after trying to solicit 17 others. I don't have a source to back that up. That's sour grapes.

Tina Haffeman (Wed Apr 02 19:34:09 2008)
The concept of a judiciary that is impartial took a blow with the Gableman win. "tough on crime", what nonsense. We have three branches of government and the judiciary is supposed to be impartial. Sad day for Wisconsin.
"Impartial" is different than differing interpretation methods and strategies. This election was about judicial interpretation and judicial activism - a good primer (if I do say so myself) is here. JE

dave allen (Wed Apr 02 20:21:31 2008)
And Gableman would be a conservative, non-activist Justice. Bunk. Every time I hear the word "judicial activism" it is always associated with tearing someone down who has ruled in a way that the opponent doesn't like. Judicial Activism plays well on 30 second sound bites. Then the so called "conservative" justice gets into office and tears down the work of the prior court in the name of "not being activist". No, the "conservative" justices are simply playing to big business masters. Can you honestly say that the US Supreme Court conservative contingent has not been activist? Tearing down years of precedent in case after case. That is the worst kind of "conservatism" , eliminating protections for the little guy covered by the fig leaf of Constitutional interpretation. In this race the real debate that could have been made over real constitutional issues was smothered by the typical Willie Horton ads that have nothing to do with the real work of the Supreme Court.

dave allen (Sat Apr 05 08:10:47 2008)
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