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4/16/2008
McCain will win big this fall
John McCain unveiled his first campaign commercial this week in Pennsylvania, a state with a hotly contested Democratic primary next week.
Pennsylvania’s neighbor Ohio is also seeing the ad for the first time. The ad talks briefly about McCain’s plan to “unite” the country, a theme that assumes Barack Obama will ultimately topple the Clinton machine. McCain also promises to work with “both parties to spur innovation, invest in people and create jobs”. With no official opponent yet, McCain is going after the constituency he loves the most, independents.
Team McCain is wisely using the time ahead of the political conventions to lay down the themes of the general election - McCain’s fight to reform government, restrain spending, and build upon the few Republican successes in 2006. Those successes were evident among the Republicans who won governorships in 2006 and 2007. Jodi Rell in Connecticut, Sarah Palin in Alaska and Bobby Jindal in Louisiana all won by vowing to restore confidence in government and returning money to the individuals generating the wealth.
Let’s be clear about this: McCain will beat Obama.
U.S. Sen. Joe Liebermann (I-CT) will excite voters by either joining the McCain ticket or endorsing his friend at the GOP Convention. The Republican faithful, in many respects already behind in organizing key states compared to the Bush 2004 effort, will put forth a credible grassroots effort in each of the 50 states. And John McCain has the winning message ahead of the November elections.
By promising to reform earmarks and improve government responses to natural disasters like Hurricane Katrina, McCain will restore confidence in the people’s government. The plight of homeowners will continue to make headlines as voters reject Obama’s plan to raise taxes. McCain knows returning tax dollars is important to stave off an economic slowdown.
Finally, McCain knows the American public believes the U.S. military – not Congress – should be calling the shots in Iraq and Afghanistan.
On the Democratic side, Obama will only have one shot at the convention to unite his base. Like every presidential candidate, Obama will get a bump after he wraps up the nomination and another after the party convention. But his poll numbers will fall fast against McCain. A former strategist to John Edwards already declared McCain the victor in a contest against Obama or Hillary.
But Obama is supposed to win the red states, right? Assuming Obama is the nominee, there is no way he will win Kansas, Missouri, Kentucky, Virginia, Montana or any other red state this fall. Obama’s values simply do not match up with those states. That will leave Democrats to fall back on the failed strategies of Al Gore and John Kerry. Obama will need to carry all the traditional Democratic states like Illinois, New York, California and Oregon plus battleground states like Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan.
It’s very likely Florida will score a big win for McCain. Pennsylvania and Michigan may be McCain country as well. Ohio – yes, Ohio – in the McCain column come November. The irony is not lost on this columnist that McCain is beginning the general election campaign in Pennsylvania before that state votes for Hillary or Barack. It’s a brilliant strategy.
As for conservatives wary of the McCain campaign, McCain is a Reagan Republican. Not necessarily on issues. Reaganesque in that he will carry 49 states this fall.
Rahmlow is a former field director for Tim Michels 2004 U.S. Senate campaign.
COMMENTS
Hurray for McCain. The guy who once shafted by George Bush in 2000 stood tall and sucked up to Bush and Rove forever after. Sorry, he had his day in 2000 and showed his true convictions (and political cowardice) since. By the way, let the military run the war in Afghanistan (and Iraq?). Does the writer have the slightest clue that under the Constitution the military is subservient to civilian control? Truman had the guts to fire McArthur. Bush (and McCain) got us into this God awful war in Iraq and the best Bush can do is step back and say it's a military issue? What a coward. And, McCain is like the puppy dog following along. God help us if there isn't enough political spine in McCain to change our course. Bush certainly doesn't have it.
dave allen (Tue Apr 15 22:02:42 2008)
I hope McCain does beat Obama, but he'll have to do it without my vote. As a conservative, I just don't see myself voting for him. If I did, I think it would send the message that the Republican party can take my vote for granted. Well, they can't.
Ben (Tue Apr 15 22:39:03 2008)
Spewing a bit of bitter platitudes are we? With McCain, it's a matter of conviction. Just because you disagree with him doesn't mean you need call it cowardice. Shame on you Dave.
Jo E. (Wed Apr 16 3:08:25)
Ben, how can McCain beat Obama without your vote?
Jo E. (Wed Apr 16 3:09:15)
Jo,
I called McCain a political coward, which he is. No one can say that he is a military coward. Check my facts. There isn't anything I said that is incorrect. McCain, as much as he is the "straight talk" express has shown that when faced with opposition within the conservative wing of the party buries his principles and goes along. Politics as usual I'm afraid.
dave allen (Wed Apr 16 06:50:20 2008)
Jo:
It will be an interesting race this fall and I predict a very close one. McCain will capture a significant number of independents and some Reagan Democrats and will have some of his party who are far to the right sit out this one.
The wild card here is the number of new Democratic voters who have registered due to the close race between Obama and Clinton. The problem they have is that with all the venom that is being spewed between the two, it may cause some of the supporters of the loser to stay home or vote for McCain. Only time will tell if that will happen.
I think McCain is doing the smart thing right now by defining himself before the other side does and let them attack each other in the primaries. He probably would not have to spend much money on TV ads and just run either Clinton's or Obama's ads. It would have quite an effect and the longer this goes on the more ads he will have.
Should be a very interesting political season!
Mike Thomas (Wed Apr 16 09:05:14 2008)
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