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4/24/2008
School enrollment numbers - not a slam dunk
Interesting Kathy Walsh Nufer article in the Post-Crescent yesterday, detailing the work of the Appleton Area School District’s (AASD) “Future Needs Study Committee.” At issue was a growth forecast for the 15,000-student district.
"This is a vibrant, growing community and the towns and townships around us are projecting it will continue," Borski said, noting that while some elementary schools within the city are at or below capacity, Berry, Houdini, Ferber and Huntley may have cause for concern [tight capacity].
Assistant Supt. Mark Huenink guided the panel through recent enrollment totals, survival ratios and projections.
If the current system of estimating continues to hold true, he said, "We are going to continue to have growth and it could be fairly significant," he said, anticipating Appleton's current enrollment of 14,925 could grow by 400 pupils in the next 10 years. [Emphasis is mine.]
Green Bay started their study committee last fall – doing essentially the same thing AASD is anticipating doing with the Future Needs Study Committee (although Appleton is meeting with many more people (81, per the P/C account), but fewer meetings (6)).
The folks in Green Bay have spent countless hours talking about enrollment projection methodology. It’s all pretty complex stuff, but suffice it to say the school district used “weighted averages” in the past, which may have overstated projections. The Task Force ultimately settled on using “Grade Progression Ratio (GPR) Methodology” for projections, and specifically declined the use of weighted averages.
The Green Bay Task Force has now moved on to discuss the placement of all those projected bodies in available buildings and classrooms. And several calculation methods/assumptions exist for those capacity calculations!
The important point here is that numbers (and words) mean something. The change to GPR methodology resulted in enrollment projections lower than previous measures in Green Bay. And differing enrollment projections will result in differing capital needs projections. And there we could be talking some big bucks. So Future Needs Study Committee, thanks for your service! Please ask the right questions about the numbers. Talk to fellow parents and community members on the Green Bay Task Force. And keep Appleton teachers, students and taxpayers uppermost in your minds.
COMMENTS
Beginning four year old kindergarten will increase building size by 7% to 14%
depending if it is 1/2 day or full day.
Dale (Thu Apr 24 07:34:39 2008)
JO:
Another good reason to end 4 year old kindergarten and save the taxpayer some money.
Mike Thomas (Thu Apr 24 16:00:04 2008)
Better yet, lets get the tax monkey off our back and get rid of all public schools. Close all the buildings. Just think of all the money we can save and the big boost efficient private industry will get to educate the future consumers and workers. I think some of the schools especially the multistory ones could be turned into state prisons (which aren't funded by property taxes) then we'd have more space to lock everyone up at a lower price.
dave allen (Fri Apr 25 07:43:48 2008)
Phew. Getting testy. Can we at least agree the state has problems? Is throwing money at them always the only solution?
Jo E. (fri Apr 25:08:23:22)
Testy? yes, of course. We trip over pennies and miss the dollars! Why is it so easy to spend unlimited dollars on prisons and yet debate 4 year old kindergarten? A classic business process is to rank expenditures according to net benefit. The present value of the overall program. Shouldn't government have the same principles? If so, the ranking of 4 year kindergarten would be way at the bottom in terms of what to cut.
dave allen (Fri Apr 25 20:42:57 2008)
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