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6/17/2008
Lance Burri: Democrats - fighting the last war?
Headline: "State Democrats say the political climate is encouraging." (Here)
And why shouldn't Democrats be encouraged? The Great Republican Slaughter of 2006 is still a fresh and heady memory. The war and President Bush remain highly unpopular. The economy is down, and the Dems finally have a candidate who reminds them of Bill Clinton. Without the infidelity.
The latest national polling has Barack Obama beating John McCain – narrowly, and within the margin of error, but winning. The latest Wisconsin poll puts Obama way ahead. Democrats are optimistic. Arrogant, even, in some quarters.
And, maybe, willfully ignorant.
Late last week, the news broke that a Wisconsin delegate to the Democratic National Convention was supporting McCain – not Obama – for president.
This is unheard of. National delegates aren't just chosen at random. They're elected by their peers based on their longevity in, dedication to, and work for the Party. National delegates are the elite of local political activists. They earn it through effort. Through loyalty.
That such a person would actually vote against her party isn't just your run-of-the-mill event.
And she's hardly alone among Democrats. Former Clinton supporters are organizing into pro-Clinton, anti-Obama, anti-DNC, and sometimes pro-McCain activist groups.
From the website Clintons4McCain.com:
...we are NOT accepting Sen. Obama to represent us in the White House. He doesn't represent us, or grassroots Americans. He represents elitism, class warfare, demagoguery, race-baiting and misogyny. That's his vision for America and the Democratic Party, not ours.
Remember, these are Democrats. Or they were, before Obama "won" the nomination through artificial committee mechanations. Their leaders are making news, and they're not alone.
Okay, so big whoop. Some Democrats have hard feelings over a hard-fought primary. It won't mean anything, and besides: Republicans have their disgruntled wing, too.
Yeah, but the disgruntled Republicans are, by and large, the same disgruntled Republicans as last time. They're the big-L libertarians; the RINO-hunting purists; the go-it-alone isolationists. Their memberships ebb and flow, but they're no surprise.
These newly disgruntled Democrats were long-time loyal and active Democrats. That's a surprise.
Add a couple other ingredients to the stew: the kinda-sorta endorsement Obama got from Fidel Castro – something that won't play well in Florida's large Cuban population. The disenfranchisement of Florida's and Michigan's primary voters, the anger that followed it, and the still-pending lawsuit over it.
Is it worth anything, electorally speaking? Maybe not. But it doesn't have to be worth much. A point here, a point there. They add up, and if this election is anywhere near as close as the last two, these Democrat disagreements could make the difference.
And then McCain will pick a female Veep, to tap those voters still ticked off about Hillary.
None of this means Democrats have no reason to be optimistic. They do, starting with McCain's bumpy relationship with core conservatives. If those conservatives stay home in November, that'll hurt races all down the ticket. And that'll help Democrats.
Plus, even if the anti-Obama Democrats stick to their guns about voting McCain (or writing in Clinton), they still might vote for down-ticket Democrats. Republicans shouldn't be counting eggs just yet, either.
Yeah, I know. That's a whole lotta "if." A whole lotta "might." As in: if I buy a lottery ticket today, I might be a millionaire tomorrow.
But they're "ifs" and "mights" that Democrats should keep in mind. Even Democrats didn't see 2006 coming. Now, because of 2006, they think they see 2008. That's called fighting the last war, and that usually turns out bad.
Lance Burri is a contributor to the Badger Blog Alliance and occasionally blogs at his own site as well.
COMMENTS
Of course, there are many Clinton voters that will defect to McCain. That was the original plan. Limbaugh Dittoheads voted first for Clinton because McCain felt her to be the easiest target. 20% of her vote was from disingenuous R's, and it did indeed prolong the agony and harm the party.
But I can't complain. I voted for Obama because I felt that if McCain lost I preferred the lesser of two evils. What goes around comes around.
Jack Lohman (Tue Jun 17 10:15:22 2008)
LOL Jack, you really must listen to Limbaugh at least once. He doesn't like McCain and McCain had nothing to do with "Operation Chaos".
C.R. Stevenson (Tue Jun 17 13:08:21 2008)
" Limbaugh Dittoheads voted first for Clinton because McCain felt her to be the easiest target. 20% of her vote was from disingenuous R's, and it did indeed prolong the agony and harm the party."
You might be amazed how many people voted in the Democratic primary who aren't dittoheads.
Why did I vote in the Dem primary? Because when the circus came to town everyone on the Republican side of the ballot had bowed out. I saw little point in rubber stamping a nominee. But as I cast my gaze to the 'D' side of the ballot .. why look, actual choices!
So, I crossed. Not because I'm disingenuous but because I wanted my vote to count.
Irritating (some) Democrats in the process was a plus.
I think there are some True Believers On the Left who underestimate how badly the Obama message plays in some areas. Just because they're Democrats doesn't mean they like what their candidate has to say.
Brian (Tue Jun 17 13:26:05 2008)
I stand corrected C.R. I'm a McCain supporter that believes Rush is an extreme wacko, even dangerous to the country. So no, I don't listen to him.
And Brian, I did the same. Couldn't stand to see Hillary get in so I voted for Obama. Don't like many of his positions, but also don't like some of McCain's.
Jack Lohman (Tue Jun 17 13:34:26 2008)
"Fighting the last war" is not a phrase I'm familiar with but it sounds like a good thing to me.
(Mr. Lohman, haven't you supported Healthy Wisconsin? Yet you are a McCain man? Or have I confused you with someone else?)
Tina Haffeman (Tue Jun 17 22:01:19 2008)
I do support Healthy Wisconsin (and Medicare-for-all, if we get there in my lifetime). But I also believe that McCain, in his heart of hearts, would sign such a bill if it got to his desk (and we had 60 votes in the senate).
Jack Lohman (Sun Jun 22 01:21:13 2008)
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