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5/6/2009
'Socialists running wild on Other People's Money'
Well, I didn’t say that. It was an expressive guy commenting on an intriguing Superior Telegram article – posted on FP News Friday. “Students Find Flaws in Rail Study.” Imagine that. The piece describes a study by a group of UW-Superior urban planning and transportation systems students who analyzed a study of a proposed train to run between Superior/Duluth and the Twin Cities - the “Northern Lights Express.” It’s a quick read – if you didn’t read it earlier, take a look.
Below are the types of issues these inquiring (doubting Thomases?) kids unearthed.
- "We found some errors, and some wishful thinking -- estimates that I don’t think are anyway near what is reasonable,”
- “It’s definitely a politically-backed project … The numbers can say one thing but what actually happens – [the] Great Lakes Aquarium [all over again].” [Among other problems, projections for the Aquarium were double what the actual maximum attendance has been.]
- Among the errors discovered were miscalculations for earthwork, drainage and utilities, as well as property acquisition errors that together would add $7.5 million to the overall cost, calculated at $298 million in a feasibility study completed in 2007.
- “The study definitely contradicts itself in some places.”
- Travel time between Superior and Duluth, including a 10-minute turnaround time in Duluth, was “sufficiently unrealistic” to make the proposed four daily trips, unlikely.
- Talking to officials with Amtrak, students learned it takes about 30 minutes to turn around Hiawatha, not the 10 minutes suggested in the study for Duluth.
- Historically, the fastest a train moved on the proposed route between Duluth and Superior was 20 minutes, when Soo Line achieved the feat in 1953. The study allows for 14 minutes travel on the same route.
- The track infrastructure has changed significantly since 1953; it’s now a 10 mph speed limit between Duluth and Superior. Achieving the speed necessary to make the trip in 14 minutes would require significant improvements not included in the $298 million price tag.
- The students estimated a round trip would take five hours and 18 minutes rather than the four hours and 20 minutes suggested in the TEMS study.
This stuff is unbelievable. When I was an alderperson, Appleton paid big bucks for these fancy studies – and at some point, you’ve got to take the word of the experts. This story says it better than any theoretical situation – sad thing to have to say, but always have an expert analyze your experts. Geeez. Here’s an interview from 2008 with the chief cheerleader for the train, president of the Duluth Depot and head of the technical advisory committee pushing for the train. No wonder the study the students looked at was seen as “political.”
Q: The project will cost close to $400 million. How can something that expensive possibly be ready by 2011? A: 2010 would be the optimum year; 2011 would be a fall-back year. We're working as hard as we can to get to 2010 to start this running. If you can build a $350 million bridge in one year, you can certainly build a railroad. Oh yeah, that makes sense. And $298 million. $400 million? To ride a train for 5 hours to get to the Twin Cities? From Duluth or Superior? Where will enough traffic come from to warrant those kind of bucks? (And whichever of those figures is correct, it’s probably a ways off on the light side.) Geeez again.
Q: How much money will the city of Duluth have to chip in for this project? A: We plan to go to the federal government for 80 percent of it; for the match we plan to go to the rail authorities and the state of Minnesota. So the answer in the big question is that Duluth won't pay a dime. Anyone want to bet?
Jo Egelhoff, FoxPolitics.net
COMMENTS
I have a theory. It is pretty well established that "public transport" was successful before we became so rich. As people could afford, they opted for personal vehicles for "mass transit." So given the economic downturn, which is still far from bottoming out, it is likely there will be a whole lot more poor people, willing to suffer the inconveniences of "public transportation." So maybe there is hope these systems will be "profitable."
With enough subsidies....
So this will not cost local folks a dime??? Do they not pay state and federal taxes? And have I not heard similar arguments before-like in funding our government indoctrination centeres-aka "public schools." You do not suppose that a pie in the sky attitude, the notion that someone else will pay, is in large part what has led to our economic demise?

Ken Van Doren (Wed May 06 10:21:39 2009)
Bureaucrats Gone Wild.
Dear People of Duluth / Superior,
Please read about the Menasha Utilities Steam Plant. It was pushed forward as a 'sure fire money maker' regardless of realities ... just like this proposed project.
Take your time - ask all the questions, and by all means KEEP THOSE STUDENTS CLOSE BY!
There's no such thing as a free lunch, much less a free railway.

Jeff Riedl (Wed May 06 10:22:15 2009)
The rail is a federal idea that he is wed to because he took federal money (as though there really is such a thing). If the feds borrow money in my name and give it to Doyle to fill his budget holes, is that not just an additional state income tax?
It's the dumb blonde syndrome, "I cant be broke, I still have checks"

David Martin (Thu May 07 21:31:22 2009)
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