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8/23/2009
Rahmlow: Dem field weak for 2010
Gov. Jim Doyle’s tenure in Wisconsin government is coming to an end.
Low approval numbers accomplished what the recall movement against Doyle could not. The governor announced his intentions to step aside early, in the interest of helping his party keep the office.
Yet none of the individuals waiting in the wings have a good chance of keeping the governor’s office in the “D” column.
Lt. Gov. Barbara Lawton is a top-contender only by virtue of the office she holds. Liberals love her, but her ability to raise money for a serious campaign is in doubt. She’s also tied to Doyle’s legacy of higher property taxes, a budget bleeding ink going into the next fiscal year, higher fees on nursing homes and cars and mounting unemployment numbers (which started well before the current recession with the closure of plants like Mirro, Tecumseh and others).
U.S. House Rep. Ron Kind (D) from Western Wisconsin has been looking at a gubernatorial run for years. Kind is probably the Democrats best bet in a general election. The Congressman has spent his formative years in Congress building a centrist record, but most of Kind’s voting history evolved during a period when Republicans had the Congressional majority. As a member of the Democratic majority, Kind’s support for nationalized health care and cap and trade taxes that will wipe out small businesses will only hurt his prospects.
Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett is also eyeing another run for the office he sought in 2002 when his Congressional career was cut short by reapportionment. Unlike his predecessor, Barrett really has been a low-key mayor with no major accomplishments. The mayor’s biggest idea, grabbing control of MPS, has been a nonstarter since he was elected. The Milwaukee Public School system is viewed as an utter waste of tax dollars by the rest of the state. That issue alone could be enough to sink Barrett’s candidacy.
Finally, Assembly Speaker Mike Sheridan (D-Janesville) told reporters this week that he will also be giving some thought to running, though Sheridan also signaled he’s unlikely to join the race because he loves his Assembly post. It’s possible the Janesville Democrat will run for governor if he thinks the slim 3-vote Democratic majority is in jeopardy. Or perhaps the Speaker is shrewd enough to sit this one out, eyeing a future election against Governor Scott Walker. In any event, the Speaker nailed the top issue of the race saying creating jobs had to be the priority of the next governor.
The Virginia governor’s race is evidence that creating jobs is foremost on voter’s minds. The GOP candidate Bob McDonnell has successfully built his campaign around that message and frequently reminds voters he’s going to be the “jobs Governor”. While unemployment has dipped very modestly, even the President is cautioning that unemployment will go above 10 percent by December.
While Wisconsin is a blue state, it will be very difficult for Democrats to hold the governor’s office in an environment where job losses are still occurring. This is especially true if Mercury Marine leaves Wisconsin for tax-friendly Oklahoma. Scott Walker, the early favorite in the governor’s race, seems to understand this. “I believe the first priority of our Governor is to ensure that the state is doing everything possible to foster job growth and a strong economy,” Walker says on his website.
None of the potential Democratic candidates for governor can offer anything different than Doyle. If the election is a referendum on Doyle, the Democratic candidate loses. If the election is a referendum on jobs, the Democratic candidate loses.
Conclusion: The GOP has a tremendous opportunity to pick up the governorship – and darn well better do it.
Rahmlow is a former field director for Tim Michels 2004 US Senate campaign and briefly served as Terri McCormick’s campaign manager.
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• Solberg: Healing After an Abortion
• Basketball fans eyeing extension of Miller Park sales tax
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• Paltry quid pro quo?
• Doyle says ARRA has ‘created or retained’ 44,000 WI jobs
• Does most of the public fall for this stuff?
• When you get signatures, always get a couple extra
• Blame it on the outmoded computers
• Scott Brown victory does not scuttle health bill
• 8th Congressional Candidate Forum, Jan. 25
• Scott Walker Meet-and-greet, Monday, Jan. 18
• Aren’t consumers taxpayers too?
• MORE taxes on investment income - dreadful and wrong
• Join the blaze orange army and say ‘Enough is Enough’
• The future of government-run health care
• Tax on banks is a really bad idea
• Roth, Savard on the stump, grassroots style
• Savard speaking in Appleton, 8 PM, Wed., Jan. 13.
• Rahmlow: Savard, Bies frontrunners for State Senate
• Burri: Failing Political Correctness 101
• School contracts and Race to the Top
• Senator Feingold worrisome and big red flags
• Psephological?
• This is really important. Contact Rep. Kagen. Now. Please.
• This is exactly what we need from Governor Doyle
• This guy is my hero
• Why am I not surprised?
• Talk health reform with Feingold (Th), Petri (today)
• Give the Mayor power over MPS - if he can break contracts
• Burri: Yup, Dems really are going to bypass a conference
• The $2.7 billion Wisconsin deficit no one told you about
• Walker launches county accountability website
• Rahmlow: Why is Van Hollen dodging the Nebraska deal?
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| 2009 |
December
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October
• The Lawton-Bader files
• Yup, it’s the TAX LEVY, not the tax RATE
• Ellis: costly automobile insurance laws must be rolled back
• If not Barrett, who?
• The subsidy game
• Burri: Bailouts, Banks, Health Care, and the Mob
• Attend Appleton Schools budget meeting tonight
• A public option WON’T increase costs? That’s delusional!
• Appleton Schools budget meeting Monday
• Wisconsin should be screaming for accountability
• Burri: If anything, we need more obstructionism around here
• WI on the leading edge - in the wrong direction
• Rep. Montgomery: Utility Customers Join State’s Crime-Fighting Efforts
• Public Conservation and Recreation Lands Total 16.5% of State
• In the crow's nest of the Titanic, shouting 'Iceberg!'
• Is Rep. Nelson a political hack?
• Health care: The road ahead will be brutal
• Kagen's pandering again
• Birthers - good stuff for you
• How much do we bend over backward for seniors?
• The trouble with health care is paying for it
• Two-parent families: The Gold Standard
• Burri: Kids... the joys and blessings
• Very, very worried about health care
• Rep. Huebsch: Wisconsin is proof government health care isn’t the answer
• School district contracts push up tax levy
• What? Obama, the Peace Prize?
• TODAY - hearing on Campaign Finance Reform
• Appleton School District tax levy up way too much
• CBO report is out - and the bill isn't even written yet?
• So, how much do YOU budget for health care?
• Burri: Copenhagen trip was amateurish
• “Sotomayor, you have blood on your hands...”
• Cap and Trade. Always follow the money
• Rep. Kagen gets (almost) free health services
• I actually agree with Rep. Kagen
• Future Wisconsin Conference for Conservatives, October 10, Wauwatosa
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| 2008 |
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• Important votes Tuesday, including Appleton Common Council
• Democrats are becoming supply siders??
• Further debunking Hillary myths
• WEAC has created an unsustainable monopoly
• From Mark Gundrum: One of the greatest honors an American can experience
• 'Operation Chaos' working?
• Joe Martin the best candidate in Appleton's 8th
• State programs to cut? - Volume II
• Oh the naivete of youth
• Not just disingenuous - flat wrong
• Steve - you will be missed
• Make cuts only AFTER you're elected....
• Getting serious: What programs can we cut?
• Rep. Steve Kagen joining me on Jerry Bader Show today
• Rep. Van Roy: Dental Care Pilot Program
• Has Dave Obey turned the corner on earmarks?
• Speaker Huebsch: Governor turns down Federal Aid?
• Mark Rahmlow: "We're Broke."
• As taxpayers, how do we know if it's a Chevy or a Lexus?
• This is trash talk - about a veteran
• Frank Lasee: Take time to get the Compact right
• 'The Gableman Ad' - is it racist?
• Roth thankful, Kagen shaking money tree
• Gov. Doyle's office not enamored with Freedom of Information
• Governor Doyle will never do it
• Leadership on smoking ban? Not Hanna
• Rep. Van Roy speaks out about smear ads
• You're threatening me about potholes?
• Losing the Hastert seat is NOT a trend and NOT curtians for the GOP
• First suggestion for 'slashing' programs
• Big money-saver for municipalities
• More one time fixes. Nuts.
• Any chances???
• I'm doing the Jerry Bader Show, today, the 11th
• Representative Frank Lasee: Final Waltz of the Season
• Guest Blog: It's not the county's business to be in the nursing home business
• Yup, Hillary won Texas and Ohio
• Gableman/Butler race featured - and it isn't pretty
• Lies from Planned Parenthood and NARAL
• He who sacrifices liberty.....
• Duh.
• The Troha sentencing, Doyle and that $200K
• Guns, passion and "originality"
• How hard is it anyway, to shut down a government program?
• Voting is a PRIVILEGE. And so are property taxes....
• Guest Blog: Governor Doyle, cancel your Ireland trip
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• Lots of ideas. No money.
• The Cigarette Tax - "Poor Policy Instrument?"
• School budget Lite?
• Frankenstein - not in the library, but in the legislature
• A librarian, a legislator, a president
• $1.25/pack - NO, NO, NO, and NO
• Kagen and Reagan in the same breath?
• Menasha: behind the 8-ball, but not biting the dust
• Any way you slice it, Wisconsin government wants (further) in on health care
• The World is Flat...what about health care?
• The PAC - too precious to fail. Day 3
• News follow-ups: Appleton West, Kagen at the White House
• Fox Cities PAC - too precious to fail - Day 2
• Fox Cities PAC - too precious to fail
• New Transit Tax coming your way
• Rep. Petri has his finger in the dike - I guess
• AASD Retirement Costs Burdensome
• Health care, health care, health care, health care
• Water rate increase was no slam dunk
• Education for all is just a bad dream
• New Year's resolutions from a parade snob
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