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What I see happening is the creation of a new entitlement program that’s going to be even bigger than Medicare. It’s the absolute height of fiscal irresponsibility because the shame of it all is we could actually fix what’s broken in health care without breaking what’s working, and without creating a huge new entitlement program that will accelerate the bankruptcy of this country. That’s what so shameful about this whole system. That’s what’s so frustrating.

Ryan added: “Congress has a pattern of passing cuts to pay for bills and then restoring the cuts once the bill has been passed. It’s crystal-clear to me that the ‘pay-fors’ in this bill will not survive and we will have created a huge deficit-funded liability. … I see no reason why Congress would change its behavior.”

“He has different policy priorities and perspectives than I do, but he is very smart, very energetic, knows his stuff and does his homework,” said Orszag. House Budget Committee Chairman John Spratt—Ryan’s nominal adversary—agrees. “You should not underestimate Paul’s ability,” Spratt told me. “Notwithstanding his young age, he’s had lots of experience.”

…. “I was delighted to talk to him because it was so refreshing to see somebody from the House who is at his intellectual level,” Greenspan told me.

…. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich also compares Ryan to the late Moynihan, the Harvard professor who ended his political career as New York’s senior senator. “I don’t know of any other elected official since Pat Moynihan who would put that kind of a completely detailed book together the way Paul has, to reach out and talk about reforming Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security,” Gingrich told me, referring to Ryan’s Roadmap. “By any reasonable standard, that’s pretty darn courageous.”

…he’s standing in the crow’s nest of the Titanic shouting “Iceberg!”

Ryan told me that if he and his fellow Republicans are able sound the alarm loudly enough, and bring enough blue-dog and moderate Democrats along with them, there’s an outside chance the legislation can stopped.

“If this thing gets defeated, then they’ll have to come and work with the Republicans and pass a bill that’s bipartisan,” Ryan said. “That’s my hope.”

Probably more of a pipe dream, he admitted.

“They have the wind at their backs now.”

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