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2/9/2010
Burri: Posing a difficult solution - it's called Leadership
Well. Look who’s getting a whole lot of attention all of a sudden.
From Fox News Sunday two days ago:
CHRIS WALLACE: All right. Handicap the 2012 GOP presidential race for us. Who's the front-runner?
SARAH PALIN: No idea. I have no idea.
WALLACE: Well, you're not a very good analyst.
PALIN: Well, fire me, then, Roger. Sorry. I already failed. But listen, no, we have some strong -- some young Turks in this party. Paul Ryan -- I'm very impressed with Paul Ryan.
WALLACE: Congressman from Wisconsin.
PALIN: Yeah. He's good. Man, he is sharp. He is smart, articulate. And he is passionate about these commonsense solutions that America has got to adopt to get us on the right road. I can name a whole lot of people.
Also on Sunday, columnist George Will:
In 2013, when President Mitch Daniels, former Indiana governor, is counting his blessings, at the top of his list will be the name of his vice president: Paul Ryan. The former congressman from Wisconsin will have come to office with ideas for steering the federal government to solvency.
Let’s leave that Vice President stuff aside. Not that Ryan isn’t a viable choice – he sure is. Smart; handsome; rising GOP and conservative star. Hailing from what was, before 2008, a swing state. Six months younger than me (son of a…) He was a dark horse for the Veep slot last time – a dark, dark horse – and that his name is, naturally, still in the hat.
But, boy, I’d rather have him where he is – ranking Republican on the House Ways and Means Committee – than attending official dinners and living in a White House closet.
Bemoaning the vast, drastic, incomprehensible levels of debt being piled up by our “leaders” in Washington D.C. is an annual pastime that predates even Ross Perot And for good reason. Last year’s record-setting 13-digit deficit has already been eclipsed by this year’s record-setting 13-digit deficit, which, all by its lonesome, is just as big as the entire federal budget was in 1996.
But as shocking as all that may be, it’s nothing compared to how things will be if we don’t do something about entitlement spending. Soon.
Oop…wait…did I just hear… Yep. There they go, screaming about mean-spirited balance-the-budget-on-the-backs-of-seniors again. About how I want to cut off people’s Social Security and Medicare. I want old folks living in the street, scavenging for scraps.
That, at least, is how the liberal “progressive” counterattack normally goes.
It’s not true, but let’s not waste time on refutations. Instead, let’s look at some charts:
The “unfunded liability” is the amount of money owed, over time, that we aren't going to have when the time to pay it comes. You’ll notice: we already owe $38 trillion more in Social Security than we’ll be able to pay; and $43 trillion more in Medicare than we’ll be able to pay. And those numbers are set to grow by 37% and 33%, respectively, by 2014.
So: who is it that wants to see old folks out in the street? Those trying to reform the system? Or those who see political advantage in ignoring the system’s problems?
Problems, I might add, that we’ve known about – and that Ryan’s been working on – for years.
While others still treat Social Security as the “third rail,” and still others treat its beneficiaries as political puppets, Ryan has been sounding the alarm on entitlement spending for years. Working for a solution – as unpopular as the issue is – for years.
That’s called leadership, and it’s why we're hearing his name.
Lance Burri blogs regularly via his site, The TrogloPundit.
COMMENTS
HOW DARE YOU?
You're a conservative, Lance, you can't use FACTS to support an argument! Conservatives aren't bright enough to think that way... shoot, we can hardly remember that NASCAR turns left, much less use fancy charts and numbers!
We're s'posed ta B lettin' them super-smirt liberals do all the fancy thinkin!
... and spend us in to oblivion.
Jeff Riedl (Tue Feb 09 07:24:47 2010)
OK, so where was Ryan's leadership when it came to his vote on the Bankster Bailout? Military commissions act? FISA Extension? Or how about his support for an interventionist military/foreign policy that is likely to bankrupt is just as surely as Social Security?
I prefer to tout the leadership of someone who has been right on these issues, and consistently votes in support of the constitutional limits on government that are ignored all too often by Democrats AND Republicans. At least the Democrats can plead ignorance.
Close, but not my kind of "conservative." Now more than ever, we need leaders who will abide by the constitution. Our freedom and our prosperity depend upon it.
Ken Van Doren (Tue Feb 09 10:40:33 2010)
Bemoaning the vast, drastic, incomprehensible levels of debt being piled up by our “leaders” in Washington D.C. is an annual pastime
Oh please, just take a deep breath, relax and read this;
http://robertreich.org/
Excerpt
Obamanomics suffers from a misunderstanding of what the President is trying to achieve and what he’s up against. Into the breach come Republicans, Tea Partiers, nay-sayers, deficit vultures, and Raging-Dog Democrats, all viewing Obamanomics as more taxes and more spending. That’s nonsense. To see the big picture, keep your eye on three big things.
Government spending needed to offset the continued reluctance of consumers and businesses to spend. You don’t have to be an orthodox Keynesian to understand that as long as the private sector is deleveraging, the public sector has to borrow and spend in order to keep the economy moving forward.
Don’t get confused by the size of the numbers at stake. Pay attention to the ratio of cumulative debt to the size of the national economy. That will tell you how easily we can manage the debt. The debt-to-GDP ratio right now is close to 53 percent – still in the manageable zone
Obama is responding. That’s one way to view his newly-proposed crackdown on Wall Street – limiting the size and potential risks big banks can take on, and imposing new fees on the biggest banks designed to repay outlays for the bailout. It also explains why the President is making another attempt to increase taxes on the overseas earnings of multinational corporations, and reduce tax breaks for hedge-fund managers and oil and gas companies. And why he feels it’s a good time to let the Bush tax cuts expire on higher-income individuals (whose propensity to spend is limited even absent higher taxes), although not on the middle class.
Dean Weichmann (Tue Feb 09 12:25:18 2010)
I tell folks that there are some excellent young GOP conservatives in the House--Young Guns--if folks would just look. And Paul Ryan is definitely one of them. So is Eric Cantor of Virginia. Hoekstra of Michigan is good. So is Shadegg of Arizona. I see hope in the House. The senate, however, has too much deadwood.
Janice Taylor (Tue Feb 09 12:43:24 2010)
Dean-
What an OBAMANible mix of lies and specious arguments put forth by Reich;
"Do not have to be a Keynesian"--ah, yes you do.
"Government had to take up the slack by spending more"- misdiagnose the problem= misdiagnosed solution. The PROBLEM is previous spending was made on investments that can not be sustained. Permanent recovery is unlikely until malinvestments are liquidated. Spending money for political purposes the "keep the economy moving" only wastes more resources, makes us poorer, digs our economic hole deeper, worsens our problems over the long run. Oh that is right, Keynes argued, "In the long run, we are all dead." But sadly, the survivors suffer because of the snake oil of the Keynesians.
"Do not be confused by the numbers...Debt to GDP=53%" Apparently Mr. Reich confused himself on this one. GDP= approx $14 Trill, debt=$12 Trill , or about 86% of GDP. Moreover, unfunded liabilities, like social Security and Medicare to name but the 2 largest, are estimated to be as high as $106 Trillion. OR more than $300,000 per person. This dwarfs the approx. $40,000 per person official debt, but even at the lower # I would start to be concerned. NOT to mention that our dollar is in danger of being massively devalued if we keep accumulating debt and monetizing it, diluting the value of existing currency.
One would think that Reich would know better than to spout such foolishness. After all, if massive increases in the size and cost of government, and rapid accumulations of debt, ala Keynes had worked, GB II should be exalted as a hero. Instead, the Obamanomics of his regime CAUSED the second Great Depression.
Reich, Bernanke, Greenspan, Paulson, Geithner did not see this coming, and Krugman gets both the cause and the cure wrong. So why should we believe them now?
Perhaps it is time to stop believing snake oil salesmen, especially those centered around Washington DC.
Ken Van Doren (Tue Feb 09 14:07:59 2010)
Dean, I suggest you start reading Austrian economics. Once the blinkers are off your eyes, you'll see that government is the ENEMY of wealth; or in other words, have you ever heard of a society TAXING its way to prosperity?
emily matthews (Tue Feb 09 16:03:29 2010)
Emily, I am familiar with the Austrian school. I don't buy it.
Ken, I noticed you could not resist misquoting Reich, leaving out a critical word. Why should anyone listen to you?
Dean Weichmann (Tue Feb 09 18:38:10 2010)
Here is a link to a graph of debt to gdp
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:PublicDebtTriade.PNG
Perhaps you have confused the type of debt/gdp Ken.
Dean Weichmann (Tue Feb 09 19:16:37 2010)
Dean- I fail to see how my paraphrasing materially affected my argument. Care to elaborate?
And the graph you supplied A. does not acknowledge the current debt of some $12 Trillion (officially, using cash based accounting.) and B. IF that was Reich's source, he misread the graph by at least 10%. 63% not 53%
And again, Reich does not acknowledge our unfunded liabilities, which will dwarf the official cash basis debt. NOR does he acknowledge that government at all levels now costs about 2/3 of our gdp. That is direct and indirect taxes plus costs imposed by regulations, now exceed 61% and are climbing. Nor does he acknowledge that the fedgov borrowed 40% of what it spent last year. How does taking more money out of the private sector stimulate wealth production?
Why should you listen to me? Your prerogative, but if I were you I would start listening to those who DID see this economic downturn coming, rather than the over educated idiots listed who keep getting it wrong. At one point in my life, I too had to face up to the fact that much of what I learned was false. Not easy to admit, but I could no longer cling to my "progressivism" in the face of overwhelming contrary evidence.
BTW, if Obamanomics has a chance of working, why did it not work when it was called Bushanomics? More spending, more government, more debt= longer and deeper downturn, JUST as predicted by the Austrian school, JUST as predicted by Peter Schiff, Robert Murphy, Tom Woods, Ron Paul and I. Not that any of us are geniuses, just that if you properly understand cause and effect, it is easy to see that the system was and is self-destructing. So under Obama, expect about a 100% chance of producing a similar result!
It might be that I have missed something here, but unless you can show me where I am factually incorrect, I stand by what I have written.
(and a tip of my hat to Emily)
Ken Van Doren (Tue Feb 09 21:41:49 2010)
"Dean- I fail to see how my paraphrasing materially affected my argument. Care to elaborate?"
Sure Ken, you deliberatly left words out of the quote to change the meaning. It was more that an error in copying, you did it on purpose. That was dishonest. That calls into question your whole arguement since I cannot trust what you say.
Dean Weichmann (Wed Feb 10 09:26:24 2010)
Ken, when I posted the link to the graph I did not ask Reich if it was the one he refered to. Another search yeilded this which has the same figures he quoted.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_public_debt
Dean Weichmann (Wed Feb 10 09:36:00 2010)
http://brillig.com/debt_clock/
According to the above, I understated my case. AND you still have not indicated what word or words I omitted and how that undermines my argument.
But go ahead and believe politicians if you want. And tho' not elected, you bet Reich is a pol. What is that they say about their lips moving?
Ken Van Doren (Wed Feb 10 11:52:46 2010)
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