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12/22/2010
Shown: Why Redistricting Really Could Matter This Time
I'll admit it right up front – I'm something of a redistricting skeptic.
After the census every ten years, most state legislatures face the task of redrawing their state's legislative district boundaries. This process allows the party who happens to be in control right after the census to draw districts in the way that is most advantageous to them, increasing political polarization. At least that's how the story goes, but like I said, I'm skeptical.
Some studies have shown that the effect of gerrymandering legislative districts on polarization is quite small. Among the evidence refuting the influence of redistricting is that polarization in the Senate has mirrored that in the House, even though we don't redraw U.S. Senate (i.e., state) borders every ten years. Beyond that, just look at the coverage of the census data released yesterday. Much of the analysis notes that shifts in population to states tending to vote Republican will mean more Republicans in the House – and that's before a single new district has been drawn.
One of the reasons the effects of redistricting might be small is the tendency of Americans to organize themselves into like-minded communities at the neighborhood level. This phenomenon was detailed by author Bill Bishop in his book The Big Sort. We are a highly mobile society, and Bishop argues quite convincingly that over the last couple of decades we have used that mobility to sort ourselves into groups based on our political (and other) beliefs. Our mobility combined with a propensity to gravitate toward those with similar views may be enough to undo the effects of a gerrymandered district, especially over a time frame like ten years.
So why should the redistricting of 2011 be any different?
The answer, like so many things these days, is related to the Great Recession. One of its effects has been a decrease in our national mobility. If the sorting that Bishop describes really is at the heart of our political polarization, then a reduction in our ability and willingness to relocate could reduce this effect, which brings us back to redistricting.
It's quite possible that an inability to vote with our feet could mean that effects from gerrymandering following the 2010 census will be larger than those seen after other redistricting efforts. If so, the GOP gains in state legislatures around the country, and especially right here in Wisconsin, really could have echoes lasting well into the next ten years.
Jeremy Shown blogs at Rhymes with Clown and frequently hits on politics and economics in Wisconsin and the U.S.
COMMENTS
I think it is significant the Chilton gets thrown in with Appleton, which is in a way disenfranchising Chilton. Calumet county is very conservative.
An interesting tidbit: When they came to my door, I expressly told them my spouse was not a US citizen. The answer? "Oh, that doesn't matter." I told them the census was to determine how many US citizens there were, but they remained adamant that they were going to count him. I refused to answer any of the other nosy questions, as the only thing they have a right to determine, is how many US citizens there are in the area.
emily matthews (Wed Dec 22 07:59:30 2010)
Yea, I think the effects are minimal, because at the same time the R's strengthen their districts they also strengthen the D's districts. What should be distressing to us is that these corrupt jokers THINK they are screwing the voters, when in fact we expect them to be on our side.
Redistricting should be done by computer under the control of the state's non-partisan Government Accountability Board.
Jack Lohman (Wed Dec 22 08:07:54 2010)
I wish I had as much faith in the GAB as Jack does. The GAB is like any other bureaucracy, wanting to enhance its own power.
Want to have a real non-partisan redistricting? How about engage Libertarian, Constitution, and Green party members, those who will not be affected by the results, do the work.
Beyond that, we should strive for geologically and or geographically consistent redistricting. Follow the existing, more or less natural divisions as closely as possible. No cherry picking certain wards to enhance or decrease the safety of one district over another.
Ken Van Doren (Wed Dec 22 11:39:11 2010)
Yea, there you go. Turn it over to the opposing parties. That's fair.
Jack Lohman (Wed Dec 22 12:49:39 2010)
I think these would be minority parties, not simply opposing parties. Sounds like a pretty fair idea to me.
AS an aside, has anyone seen a picture of that county someplace down south that looks as though it could be about 500 miles long and 2 miles wide? Gerrymandering to the max.
At least we haven't had to put up with that in Wisconsin.
A blessed and happy Christmas to all!
C.R. Stevenson (Wed Dec 22 15:21:40 2010)
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