10/24/2006
The winds of change, they are a-blowin'
When GOP Washington bigwigs start in with Halloween scenarios about what the world will look like under House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, you know the stars are aligned for the big switcheroo.
But instead of passionately trading opinions at the water cooler, consider checking out a few odds-makers to assess the real chances your party will be in power come the morning of November 8.
Justin Wolfers, Stanford School of Business, has stacks of evidence showing the accuracy (high!) of odds-making in the game of politics. Have some fun and check out any number of sites to assess the political landscape.
Cook Political Report. Subscribing to this site is expensive, but a few of the pages are free for any ol’ body. As of October 18, Cook rated the Doyle/Green contest a toss-up. As of Oct. 20, Dem’s currently have 7 House seats listed as “Lean Dem.” or “Toss up.” A big 48 Rep. seats in the House are listed as “Lean Rep.” or a “Toss up.” Wow.
Check out www.RealClearPolitics.com. The congressional races are laid out neat and clean in order of the likelihood of a change in party. Polling data are summarized showing Doyle with a 6.2 point lead. RCP also lists the latest InTrade.com trading figures.
At www.intrade.com, Those willing to put their money where their mouth is see the chances at 75 – 76% that Doyle will win the statehouse. Someone wanting to bet to win 100 bucks on Mr. Green is only willing to throw down about 20 big ones. The markets tell all….
The odds placed on a democrat winning the Wisconsin Governor’s mansion closed at $76 yesterday at www.tradesports.com. More overwhelming odds. Remembering that Dems need 15 House seats to win control of the House, the odds-makers say it’s a 95% chance they’ll pick up 5. The chances Dems will pick up the 15 needed for control is priced at about 65%. Wow. Ms. Pelosi’s time has come.
Lastly, check out the Iowa Electronic Market. Fascinating. The University of Iowa uses this real-life experiment with capital markets to study “individual trading behavior as well as market level performance.” And we can all join in. Odds here come in, once again, at 65% the GOP will lose the house, about 30% the GOP will lose the Senate.
Enthralling. Odds are about 72% that you’ll lose about 30% productivity at work today if you really start looking at this stuff.
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