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Accepting the district's latest enrollment projections at face value, the district's own numbers prove conclusively that there will be no need for another high school or middle school in Green Bay for at least 10 - 15 years.

According to the district projections, high school enrollment in Green Bay peaked last year at 6,417. The projected number for this year is 6,342. High school enrollments will decline in Green Bay for the next four years, reaching a low of 5,981 in 2011/2012. High school enrollment is not projected to return to the current level until 2016/2017, when the projected number is 6,342.

The capacity of the four high schools is 6,310. If the district projections are correct, enrollment will exceed capacity by only 32 students ten years from now. The district's projected number includes over 300 students who attend alternative programs and are not attending the regular high schools during the regular school day. Taking those students out of the count means that the actual number of students attending the four high schools will be less than the capacity by 268.

The projected enrollment for the middle schools in 2016/2017 is projected to be 4818. This is 172 less than the capacity of the existing middle schools.

Based on the district's own numbers, it is clear that Green Bay will not need another high school or middle school for at least 15 years.

The real problem is not too many students. The real problem is the unequal distribution of students. Preble High School is projected to have 2,471 students enrolled in 2016/2017. Subtracting the approximately 100 Preble students that are in alternative programs puts Preble's projected actual enrollment at 2,371, or approximately 400 over capacity. This is the problem that needs a solution. Building a new high school is not the appropriate solution for this problem because there is excess capacity in the other three high schools and there are many other options that could reduce Preble's enrollment.

The other two legitimate issues facing the district are enrollment problems at some elementary schools and the need to address high priority deferred capital maintenance projects. Instead of wasting the time of 50 people trying to fool them into endorsing construction of a secondary school that is not needed, the district should focus attention on the three legitimate issues that deserve serious consideration. What the district needs is more leadership, not more management.

Here are the minutes of the Sept. 4 meeting of the Task Force that include a brief, but specific discussion of enrollment projection methodology. The next meeting of the Task Force will be September 20, 4:30 – 6:30 p.m., District Office Building Room 138. 

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